Managed pubs took 3.8% more in September 2026 than a year earlier, on the NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker published this morning. Good headline. But the ONS figures out yesterday put prices in restaurants, pubs and hotels up 3.8% over the same twelve months, so most of that rise is the price on the board, not more people buying drinks. And September's 3.5% CPI figure is the one that sets next April's business rates multipliers in England, which tax firm Ryan reckons adds £129m to hospitality bills unless the Chancellor steps in next Wednesday.
The numbers
| Measure | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Managed pubs, like-for-like sales | +3.8% | NIQ RSM tracker, 22 October |
| All managed pubs, bars and restaurants, like-for-like | +2.7% (August was +0.8%) | NIQ RSM tracker |
| Bars, like-for-like | −1.7% | NIQ RSM tracker |
| Prices: restaurants and hotels | +3.8% (August was 4.1%) | ONS, 21 October |
| Prices: hotels on their own | +2.3% | ONS |
| Prices: alcohol and tobacco bought in shops | +2.5% | ONS |
| Prices: food and soft drinks bought in shops | +1.3% | ONS |
| CPI inflation, everything | 3.5% (August was 3.1%) | ONS |
| RPI | 3.9% | ONS |
To be fair, pubs were the tracker's best performers, it was their second-best month of 2026, and the fifth positive month in a row. The tracker itself says sales are still below inflation, with no real growth since spring 2025.
3.8% more money isn't 3.8% more trade
If your prices are up 3.8% and your takings are up 3.8%, you've sold the same number of pints. That's roughly what these two numbers say happened in managed pubs.
It's probably a bit worse than that. The ONS restaurants and hotels group includes hotels, and hotel prices only rose 2.3%. So the eating and drinking out part of it was rising faster than 3.8%. ONS doesn't split pubs out in the bulletin, so I can't give you the exact figure, and the tracker only covers managed groups, not tenants or free houses. But on these figures a managed pub's September was flat, or a touch down, in actual drinks and meals.
That matters because the National Living Wage went up 4.1% in April to £12.71. A pub that put its prices up 4% and saw takings rise 3.8% has sold fewer pints and pays more for every hour behind the bar.
Do your own like-for-like, in pints
It takes ten minutes and it's the most honest number you'll look at this month.
- Takings. September 2026 ex VAT against September 2025 ex VAT. This year it's a fair fight: both Septembers had four Fridays and four Saturdays. September 2026 just swaps a Monday for a Wednesday.
- Your price rise. How much your best sellers have gone up since last September. If your lager went from £4.70 to £4.90, that's 4.3%.
- The sum. (1 + takings growth) divided by (1 + price rise), minus 1. Takings up 3%, prices up 5%: 1.03 ÷ 1.05 = 0.981, so you sold about 1.9% less.
- Then count it. Kegs and casks used in September against last September, from your delivery notes or stocktakes. An 11-gallon keg is 88 pints. That number can't be flattered by a price rise, and it's the one I'd trust.
If your pint count is flat, you've done what the managed groups did. If it's down, it's not just you. If it's up, find out why before you change anything, because that's the thing to protect.
The rates bit: September's 3.5% is next April's bill
In England, the business rates multipliers go up each April by the previous September's CPI, unless the government sets them lower. That's this one. Ryan's analysis, covered by the Morning Advertiser yesterday, puts it at about £1.1bn more on bills across England from April 2027, £129m of it on hospitality, leisure and accommodation.
Here's what it looks like on one pub. The small business retail, hospitality and leisure multiplier for 2026/27 is 38.2p, for rateable values under £51,000. If it went up the full 3.5%, it'd be about 39.5p. On a pub with a rateable value of £20,000, that's a bill of £7,640 before reliefs going to about £7,907. Call it £267 a year, about £5 a week, or two pints' worth of gross profit at £2.45 a pint. Not the end of the world, it just lands in the same April as everything else.
Two things could change it next Wednesday. The promised 20% rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues starts in April 2027, worth about £1,100 to a typical pub on the government's own estimate, and it comes off a bill that's been uprated first. And the Morning Advertiser reported on 19 October that the Chancellor is expected to lift the point where small properties pay nothing from £12,000 to £18,000 of rateable value, which it says would take about 2,600 pubs out of rates altogether. The Treasury wouldn't comment, so treat that as a report, not a promise. How the reliefs stack is in my business rates relief guide.
My take
A 3.8% headline a week before the Budget is nice for the mood and not much else. Greene King's finance director wrote this week that the industry estimate is 12p of profit on a pint. With margins that thin, volume is the thing that pays the bills, and on these figures volume isn't moving.
So I wouldn't put prices up again off the back of this. I'd count the kegs, work out whether I'm selling more or less than last September, and wait for the Budget before deciding anything. What each Budget ask is worth per pint is in the Budget guide, and I'll write up what actually changes on the day.
Common questions
How much did pub sales rise in September 2026?
Managed pubs' like-for-like sales were up 3.8% on September 2025, according to the NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker published on 22 October 2026. Across managed pubs, bars and restaurants the rise was 2.7%.
Is a 3.8% rise in pub sales real growth?
Mostly not. The ONS put prices for restaurants and hotels up 3.8% in the year to September 2026, and hotels rose only 2.3% within that, so eating and drinking out prices rose faster. A 3.8% rise in takings is roughly flat in drinks and meals sold.
What does September's inflation figure mean for pub business rates?
In England the business rates multipliers rise each April by the previous September's CPI unless the government sets them lower. September 2026 CPI was 3.5%. On a pub with a £20,000 rateable value on the 38.2p small business hospitality multiplier, a full 3.5% rise adds about £267 a year before reliefs.
How do I work out my pub's real like-for-like sales?
Divide one plus your takings growth by one plus your average price rise, then take away one. Takings up 3% with prices up 5% means about 1.9% less sold. Better still, compare kegs and casks used against the same month last year.
Sources
- Pubs +3.8%, managed sector +2.7% (August +0.8%), restaurants +2.6%, bars −1.7%, fifth positive month, sales below inflation and no real-terms growth since spring 2025: NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker, via Morning Advertiser, Pubs lead hospitality growth as sales rise 3.8% in September, 22 October 2026.
- CPI 3.5% (August 3.1%), RPI 3.9%, restaurants and hotels 3.8% (August 4.1%), hotels 2.3%, alcohol and tobacco 2.5%, food and non-alcoholic beverages 1.3%: ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026, 21 October 2026.
- £1.1bn uprating across England, £129m on hospitality, leisure and accommodation, based on September CPI: Morning Advertiser, Hospitality faces £129m business rates rise from April 2027, 21 October 2026.
- Multipliers adjusted to reflect the CPI figure for the September before the billing year: Chorley Council, National non-domestic rating multiplier. 2026/27 multipliers including the 38.2p small business RHL multiplier: Reading Borough Council, Changes to business rates multipliers from 2026.
- Reported £12,000 to £18,000 threshold, about 2,600 pubs, Treasury declined to comment: Morning Advertiser, Pub operators question reported business rates relief plans, 19 October 2026.
- 20% cut from April 2027, about £1,100 for a typical pub: GOV.UK, PM slashes business rates bills for pubs, clubs and live music venues, 23 July 2026.
- Industry estimate of 12p profit per pint: Greene King CFO Jonathan Fearn, via Morning Advertiser, Greene King warns of punishing cocktail of costs, 21 October 2026.
- National Living Wage £12.71 from April 2026: GOV.UK, National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates. 88 pints in an 11-gallon keg: my pints in a keg guide.
- The like-for-like sum, the £20,000 rateable value example, the £2.45 gross profit per pint (a £5.34 pint at 55% wet GP) and the weekday counts are my own arithmetic.