295 pubs closed in the UK between January and the end of September 2026, on figures the British Beer & Pub Association put out yesterday, and it forecasts 360 by the end of the year unless the Budget on 28 October helps. Scotland lost 64, more than any English region. The North East lost 11, the fewest in England. The BBPA says the average pub hands HMRC about £200,000 a year, so 360 closures would cost the Treasury almost £72m.
The figures, region by region
| Region | Pubs closed, January to September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Scotland | 64 |
| South East | 42 |
| North West | 39 |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 27 |
| South West | 25 |
| East of England | 24 |
| West Midlands | 20 |
| London | 20 |
| East Midlands | 18 |
| North East | 11 |
| Wales | 5 |
| Total | 295 (England 226) |
BBPA figures as reported by the Morning Advertiser on 12 October. The eleven rows add up to 295 on their own. Northern Ireland isn't in the breakdown.
The BBPA also says the 360 it expects by December would mean about 5,000 jobs lost, more than half of them held by under-25s.
The pace has slowed since spring
In May the BBPA put the first quarter at 161 closures. Nearly two a day. Take yesterday's 295 at face value against that and April to September added 134, which is about 0.7 a day over six months, down from 1.8 a day in January to March. The 360 forecast means roughly 65 more by December, the same slower pace again.
I'm not saying things are fine. But a quarter as bad as the first one hasn't repeated, and I'd rather read the numbers straight than borrow the scariest one going.
The other trap is the comparison everyone will make. 360 against 2025's 336 looks like a year getting worse. But 336 was a net figure, closures minus new openings, and the 2026 counts read as pubs that shut. Different measures. The BBPA coverage doesn't say which basis the 295 is on, so until it does, treat any "worse than last year" line with a bit of care. I keep both kinds of figure in separate columns on my pub closures tracker, which I've updated this morning.
One more housekeeping note for anyone quoting totals. The write-up gives the number of pubs at the end of 2025 as 43,656. The BBPA's own earlier figure was 44,656, and "almost 2,200 net closures in five years" only works from the higher one, so that's the one I'm sticking with in how many pubs are in the UK.
The £200,000 tax figure, checked against a real pint
The BBPA says the average pub contributes about £200,000 a year to HMRC across VAT, beer duty, employment taxes, business rates and corporation tax, and that £1 of every £3 spent in a pub goes straight to the taxman. £200,000 a year is about £3,850 a week.
That average has the big managed houses in it, so here's a wet-led local instead. On my own pint anatomy, £1.39 of the average £5.34 pint is VAT and duty before the pub sees a penny. Call it 26p in the pound. On a pub taking £5,000 a week over the bar, if every pound of it were beer, that's about £1,300 a week and around £67,700 a year, before PAYE, employer National Insurance or rates. Add those and one pound in three stops sounding like a campaign slogan.
Wetherspoon's audited accounts said much the same thing earlier this month: 39.8% of everything it took went in tax. I went through those in the Wetherspoon results piece.
A North East footnote
Eleven is the lowest in England and I'll take it. It isn't a sign our pubs are richer. The North East pint is the cheapest in the country at £4.90 on the Morning Advertiser's May survey, so there's less margin in every pint up here, not more.
Small bit of good news in the same week. Newcastle City Council voted on 7 October to scrap its late-night levy from the end of October. Venues trading past midnight were paying between £299 and £4,400 a year for it. Not life-changing, but it's money that stays in the till.
What the BBPA wants on 28 October
Mainly the 20% business rates cut the Prime Minister has promised pubs from next year, honoured in full, and a permanently fair rates system behind it. On top of that it's asking for a beer duty freeze, a bigger draught relief, and a look at employment costs for under-25s. It's also backing the hospitality VAT campaign, whose petition passed 400,000 signatures this week. If you want to know what the current rates relief is worth to you, my rates relief guide has the sums.
My take
None of that is in a licensee's gift. Budget day decides it, and I'll write up what it means per pint the afternoon it lands.
What is in our gift is the bit between the cellar and the till. When the tax on every pint is fixed by law, the only part of the margin you fully control is the stock you lose. A 2% gap between what's poured and what's rung through, on £5,000 a week, is £100 a week at the till. That's why I count weekly rather than waiting for the quarterly stocktake to tell me something three months old. If you want your own number in pounds, the GP profit leak calculator is free and takes about a minute, and the usual causes are in cutting your GP losses in 30 days.
Common questions
How many pubs have closed in the UK in 2026?
The British Beer & Pub Association says 295 pubs closed between January and the end of September 2026, and forecasts 360 for the full year unless the 28 October Budget helps. The first quarter alone was 161.
Which region has lost the most pubs in 2026?
Scotland, with 64 closures by the end of September. In England the South East lost most (42), then the North West (39). The North East lost the fewest in England, 11, and Wales lost 5.
How much tax does a pub pay?
The BBPA puts the average at about £200,000 a year across VAT, beer duty, employment taxes, business rates and corporation tax, and says £1 of every £3 spent in a pub goes to the taxman. On an average £5.34 pint, VAT and duty alone are about £1.39.
Are more pubs closing in 2026 than in 2025?
The forecast of 360 is higher than 2025's 336, but 336 was a net figure (closures minus openings), while the 2026 counts read as pubs that shut. They are different measures, so the comparison flatters the rise. The pace has also slowed: about 1.8 a day in the first quarter, about 0.7 a day from April to September.
Sources
- 295 closures to the end of September 2026, regional breakdown, 360 forecast, about 5,000 jobs, £200,000 average tax per pub, almost £72m, £1 in every £3, the BBPA's Budget asks, and the 43,656 total quoted: The Morning Advertiser, BBPA warns 360 pubs could close this year without Budget reforms, 12 October 2026.
- 161 closures in the first quarter of 2026: The Morning Advertiser, 5 May 2026.
- Newcastle late-night levy scrapped from the end of October, vote on 7 October, £299 to £4,400 a year: The Morning Advertiser, 12 October 2026.
- VAT petition past 400,000 signatures: The Morning Advertiser, 12 October 2026.
- £5.34 average pint and £4.90 North East pint: The Morning Advertiser pint price survey, 21 May 2026.
- £1.39 of tax in a £5.34 pint, 44,656 pubs at the end of 2025, 2025's 336 net closures and Wetherspoon's 39.8%: from my own guides linked above, each with its sources.
- Daily pace, the 134 and 65 figures, £3,850 a week, the £5,000-a-week local and the 2% example are my own arithmetic, illustrative, not about any real pub.