Stocktake surplus in a pub: why you came out up, when a surplus is a warning, and the see-saw that turns it into next month's deficit

A stocktake surplus means the till took more money than the stock you used should have brought in at your prices. A small one, steady from count to count, is usually the draught doing a bit better than the book and nothing to worry about. A big one is as much a warning as a big deficit. The usual causes: a delivery missing from the stocktaker's records, a closing count that's too high, till prices above the price list, takings that include things that aren't drink, or pints going out short. Several of those come straight back as a deficit next time. One full keg of lager counted at close that was actually empty is a £470 surplus now and a £470 deficit at the next count.

Four of my five liquor audits came back as surpluses: +£193, +£65, +£51 and +£13. The other one was a £756 deficit, which got charged back to me. I can't tell you for certain what drove each of those results, and that's the point of this guide. Everyone looks hard at a deficit. Hardly anyone looks at a surplus, and it's often the same problem showing up a period early.

The Morning Advertiser said this back in 2005: the trade tends to accept a surplus as a reasonable result and reject a deficit as poor performance, and you should look as suspiciously at a big surplus as at a deficit. It was right then and it's still right.

How a surplus is worked out

A wet stocktake is a simple sum, whoever does it.

Opening stock, plus everything delivered, minus closing stock, is what you used. Value what you used at your selling prices and that's what the till should have taken. Compare it with what the till did take. More in the till than expected is a surplus. Less is a deficit.

So a surplus can only come from three places. The till took more than it should have. Or the stock used looks smaller than it really was, because a delivery's missing from the sum or the closing count is too high or last time's opening count was too low. Or the prices the stocktaker valued it at are lower than the ones you actually charged. Every cause below is one of those three. The net versus gross guide explains why the same result can be shown two ways, and the acceptable variance guide covers how big is too big.

The causes, and how to check each one

Cause	What it does	How to check	Comes back next time?
Delivery missing from the records	Stock arrives, gets sold, but was never added in. Stock used looks smaller, so the till looks high	Match every delivery note to the stocktaker's purchase list	Only if the invoice turns up late
Closing count too high	An empty keg counted as full, a part bottle over-read, stock counted twice	Recount the lines that are up the most	Yes, as a deficit
Last opening count too low	Same thing from the other end	Look at the previous result on the same lines	Already has
Till prices above the price list used	You charge £5.34, the stocktaker values it at £5.10	Check the price list date against your last price change	Every time until it's fixed
Takings include things that aren't drink	Food, rooms, events, cashback or a deposit rung through on wet buttons	Pull the till's takings by department	Every time until it's fixed
Allowances set too generously	Ullage, line cleaning or comp allowances bigger than what really went	Ask for the allowance figures line by line	Every time
Stock that came in from somewhere else	A transfer from another site, or an emergency bottle bought on a personal card, never entered	Ask the team what came in that didn't come on the lorry	Only if it's entered later
Free-flow draught and postmix	More serves per keg or box than the book allows	Look at which lines carry the surplus	Steady, small
Pints going out short	Big heads or short pours mean more pints per keg than the book expects	Measure some pints in a stamped jug, liquid only	Steady, until it's fixed

The see-saw: a surplus that's really next month's deficit

This is the one that catches pubs out. Say an 11-gallon keg of lager at the back of the cellar gets counted as full at close when it's empty. That's 88 pints that look like they're still there. At £5.34 a pint, the stocktake says you used £470 less than you did, so it shows a £470 surplus. Everyone's pleased.

Next count, that phantom keg is in the opening stock. It never gets sold, because it never existed. Now the same £470 shows up as a deficit, and it looks like stock went missing on someone's watch. Nothing did. The mistake was in the count before.

When a surplus is followed by a deficit of about the same size on the same lines, that's what I'd look for first. My figures, illustrative, using an 11-gallon keg of 88 pints.

Short pints are a surplus you shouldn't want

In 2024 the Chartered Trading Standards Institute published test purchases from 77 pubs and bars across the UK. Of 137 drinks, 96 were short measured. For beer it was 86% of the pints tested, with the short ones on average 4% under. Legally the head counts as part of the pint, so this isn't always the same thing as too much froth, but the effect on a stocktake is the same.

Put that on a pub pouring 1,000 pints a week. If 86% of pints are 4% short, that's about 34 pints a week more out of the kegs than the book expects, roughly £184 a week of surplus at £5.34. My arithmetic, not a claim about any pub. That's not margin. That's customers' beer, and it's the kind of surplus that ends in a Trading Standards visit or regulars quietly drinking somewhere else.

It's rarely about people. It's glasses that are the wrong size or unlined, a flow rate that's too fast so everything comes out as foam, or nobody ever being shown what a full pint looks like. Fix the kit and the training, not the person. The drink measures guide has the law, and the staff pours guide covers the opposite problem.

When a surplus is fine

There's no official benchmark for an acceptable surplus. My rule is that it's fine when it's small, it's steady from count to count, it sits on the draught lines rather than the spirits, and you know why it's there. Four of my five audits landed within about three tenths of a percent either way, which is the kind of noise any count of a busy bar will have.

It's not fine when it's big, when it jumps around, when it's on bottled products (which should count to the bottle), or when it's followed by a deficit. A surplus on a line that should be exact, like bottled beer or a soft drink in cans, is almost always a counting or recording mistake. Those products don't pour generous.

What I'd do with a surplus

Ask for the line-by-line. A total surplus tells you nothing. Which products are up, and by how much?

Match the deliveries. Every delivery note against the purchase list the stocktaker used. One missing invoice explains a lot. The short delivery guide covers checking at the door.

Check the price list date. If prices went up and the stocktaker wasn't told, every line looks up. The guide to putting prices up has a routine for that.

Split the takings. Wet, food, rooms, events. If anything that isn't drink is in the wet figure, the surplus is fake. The till not matching guide walks through it.

Spot check the lines that are up. Count them again before the next full stocktake. If it's a count error you'll find it now instead of as a deficit later. The line checks guide covers quick checks.

Don't spend it. A surplus isn't money in the bank. Until you know why it's there, treat it as an error you haven't found yet.

In a tied pub there's one more reason to understand a surplus: product that didn't come through the tie shows up as a surplus too, because it's sold without ever being in the purchase records. That's exactly what a pubco's audit and flow monitoring look for, so an unexplained surplus is worth explaining before anyone else asks. The flow monitoring guide covers what a pubco can and can't do with that.

Where StockTap fits

StockTap shows variance product by product rather than as one total, so a surplus on the lager and a deficit on the cask don't cancel each other out and hide. Spot checks against the till let you recount the lines that are up between full counts, and delivery notes scanned in mean a missing invoice is easier to catch. It won't tell you why a line is up. It shows you which ones to look at.

Common questions

What does a surplus mean on a pub stocktake?

It means the till took more money than the stock used should have brought in at your selling prices. It's worked out as opening stock plus deliveries minus closing stock, valued at selling prices, compared with actual takings.

Is a stocktake surplus good?

A small, steady surplus on draught is normal. A big or jumpy one usually means a mistake: a missing delivery, a closing count that's too high, wrong prices or takings that include non-drink sales. Treat a big surplus as seriously as a big deficit.

Why do I have a surplus one stocktake and a deficit the next?

Usually because the closing count was too high. Stock counted that wasn't there makes a surplus, then it sits in the next opening stock and shows as a deficit of the same size. An 11-gallon keg of lager wrongly counted as full is about £470 each way at £5.34 a pint.

Can short measures cause a stocktake surplus?

Yes. More pints per keg than expected means more money than the book allows. Trading Standards test purchases published in 2024 found 86% of beers tested were short measured, by 4% on average. A surplus from short pints isn't margin, it's customers' beer.

Can a surplus show buying outside the tie?

It can. Product sold through the till that never came through the pubco's deliveries shows as a surplus, which is one of the things pubco audits look for. That's why an unexplained surplus in a tied pub is worth explaining with delivery notes and counts.